How gas prices have changed since Joe Biden took office (2024)

Gas prices remain high across the country despite slower demand and weaker inflation, an issue that could become critical for President Joe Biden ahead of the 2024 election, analysts have told Newsweek.

When Biden took office in January 2021, gas prices were an average of $2.4 per gallon across the country, according to historical data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). By December of the same year, they had risen to over $3 per gallon. In June 2022, they peaked at an average of $5.06 per gallon, the highest on record, after which they started to drop below $4.

This year, gas prices have remained consistently below the peak of 2022, but still higher than they were when Biden took office two and a half years ago.

In the first week of January, the average gas price in the U.S. was $3.2 per gallon. By the end of the month, it had risen to $3.4. In the following months, prices remained steadily over $3 per gallon, while in August they surged to nearly $3.8 per gallon, according to the EIA.

As of August 30, the average price of regular gas was $3.827, according to AAA—just slightly lower than the $3.844 average reported a year before.

Stubbornly high gas prices could cause resentment toward Biden among voters, according to experts.

"Biden is certainly hoping that the late-summer spike in gas prices is fleeting. If they're not, the timing could hardly be worse," Thomas Gift, founding director of the UCL Centre on US Politics in London, U.K., told Newsweek.

"Just when the White House thought inflation was finally starting to cool, this will be another reminder to Americans of what Bidenomics has meant to their wallets in recent years," he added.

Gas experts Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at Gas Buddy, and Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), told Newsweek that while Biden and his administration had little to no role in the recent rise in gas prices, that may not spare him voters' anger.

Why Have Gas Prices Been Rising?

"We've seen a lot of movement [since 2021] and a lot of it is related to things that are completely separate from the White House," DeHaan said. "COVID-19 was front and center, it caused gas prices to initially decline during the pandemic and then to skyrocket as it eased and the American economy started to recover."

During the pandemic, several refineries across the country shut down for good or were repurposed to produce greener energy than gas. This means that once the country reopened and demand for gas boomed, there was limited refinery capacity.

This was in part driven by the Biden administration's push for a greener U.S. economy, with many refineries "seeing the writing on the wall" about gas and either closing or repurposing their infrastructure, Cinquegrana said.

"This caused prices to start to jump in 2021, and then in early 2022 Russia's invasion of Ukraine really caused hardship, with prices jumping to the highest level we've seen in the US," DeHaan said.

But the worst is now behind us, he added.

"The good news is that as we navigated these high prices, that pent-up demand accumulated during two years of essentially lockdown started to ease this year," he said. "On top of that, Russia has continued to export oil, and countries like Iran have started to export more oil. We've seen a slight improvement in oil supply, and we've seen some refinery expansion come up."

"The great fear of Russian oil and even refined products going to zero was unfounded," Cinquegrana agreed. "Even with the sanctions, Russia is still selling oil to India, China, whoever is buying."

Despite this, gas prices remain high in the U.S. because "crude oil and gasoline prices in conjunction recently reached the highest levels of the year in the wholesale markets," Cinquegrana said. And when it comes to gas prices, "the president or whoever is in charge is going to get blamed for higher prices no matter what."

"Honestly, if I were the president, I would take all the credit in the world for lower gas prices."

Will Gas Prices Continue Rising?

DeHaan believes that gas prices will follow traditional seasonal trends in the coming months, falling slightly after the summer.

"Demand for gasoline falls in the fall. We also switch back to cheaper winter gasoline, which should provide some $0.10 to $0.20 drop as well," he said.

"It's normal to see gas prices declining into the cooler months, as it's normal to see them going up in the spring," he added. "But I don't see any major, long-term shift unless there is an improvement with Russia's war in Ukraine."

Also, DeHaan said, gas prices in the U.S. will still be affected by OPEC policies, notably its recent decisions to cut production to boost prices. "There could be a future impact on prices as well," he added.

"As we remain in this high inflation environment, I think [gas prices] are still going to be part of the debate heading into the 2024 election," Cinquegrana said.

"There are three things that move the needle in this country: politics, religion, and gas prices. It's incredible what gas prices do to American psychology. We love cheap gas."

What Do High Gas Prices Mean For Biden's 2024 Campaign?

According to DeHaan, gas prices are "a very, very visible sore point for many Americans," especially after the all-time record highs of last year.

"It's very much a conversational issue, everyone knows what the price of gasoline is," he said. "When Americans drive by gas stations constantly, they are reminded of high prices. And really, it seems that hybrids and gasoline eat into how Americans feel about the broader economy."

Gas prices, DeHaan said, have the power to make Americans feel either optimistic or pessimistic about the country's economy.

"Many Americans are very tuned into the price of gasoline, especially because it's been above average," he said. "And that's going to be a factor in the election."

While Biden successfully kept gas prices from continuing to rise last year by releasing 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in December, Cinquegrana said "the president really can't control the price of gasoline."

For Gift, the issue is likely to be a weapon Republicans could use against Biden in 2024.

"For Republicans, it's a talking point they'll no doubt drive home as they snatch the spotlight in the next several months in primary debates and on the campaign trail," he said.

The Biden administration, which has been taking credit for the current strong economy in the U.S. and the taming of inflation, can hardly do anything to keep gas prices down, DeHaan said, as the issue is largely out of its control.

However, the fact that Biden's electoral campaign has openly pitted him against the oil industry is not going to help him next year.

"The oil industry feels demonized, it feels attacked," DeHaan said. "And that is going to make the oil industry more hesitant to respond to any policy improvements that the president brings about."